Wall of text incoming. I admit this has been bouncing around in my head for a while now (as evidenced by the little prod I gave Tom trying to get him to comment on Nate). I was going to save it, hoping we would lynch Nate and then I could throw it down and do a little shock move on Tom... but then I realized if I die, you don't get to hear it. So yeah.
I actually skimmed through the entire thread and looked for ALL interactions between Tom and Nate... and this is it; 6 quotes. Now I honestly don't know how this compares to any other given pair of players, but it wasn't until something page 7 that they even acknowledged the existence of each other.
One way to find out-
vote Nate
My basic theory is/was- stick that vote there, see what happens. I figured i'd possibly draw a vote for myself, or another bandwagon vote for nate. Nate is mostly harmless, or so it seems. Direct reaction to that vote was theoretically going to give me more info. Not neccesarily from Nate, but perhaps another player. We still don't know a lot.
Just kind of WTF. Not really sure what to think about this. He votes, but then says Nate is "mostly harmless..." He claims to have been looking for reactions from others, rather than from Nate. The more I think about it, the more this just seems like a ploy to distance themselves from each other. Tom admits the vote means very little. He was just trying to get a reaction out of everyone, so why choose Nate? I could see them discussing it during the night and deciding they need to put a little superficial separation there.
Personally, I don't know that Nate is the right target. It seems to me there was a lot of flip flop voting once he started hitting the limelight. Though he hasn't been too forthcoming with his defense.....
This was in response to Andy's post mentioning that Nate is L-1 and what we should do. He doesn't actually state how he feels about Nate. Just that Nate hasn't been defending himself. Interesting that he doesn't give an opinion here.
That's the problem- I'm not really sure on either case. The D1 lynch of AJ was a suicide, it was clear that he was going to be of no use whatsoever, so even though he was town, he had to go. D2, we're sort of running into the same situation, that is- it looks like Nate isn't going to be a lot of help. IDK if that's by choice, or change in playstyle, but he's seeming kinda worthless at the moment, town or not. The problem lies in the fact that he's really not "worthless" There's only 5 town left. There will only be 3 town left after this day- if Nate turns out to be one of them. That puts us at a large disadvantage for the last couple rounds. I don't really want that. Ben being scummy is quite likely IMO- but I'll be honest. The last couple pile votes on him bringing him to L-1, made me think he's not scum after all, and that there's a strong likelihood that scum was counting on a hammer vote from someone else to get it done early. Unfortunately, that points the finger right at you, Andy. Couple that with what you ADMITTED was a bandwagon vote for Nate, and your case isn't looking really strong either.
When asked by Andy again if Nate would be a good lynch today.
I like the bold here a lot. Tom makes sure to mention that if we lynch NATE and he flips town, we are in trouble, but then he goes on to state that Ben or Andy would be better lynches. He then conveniently ignores the fact that if either of the two of them are town we are in the same position. He clearly seems to want Nate to live, but doesn't seem to care much who we lynch aside from that.
Well I reread all the vote counts from past games. Every time both scum voted for the person who got lynched.
Now that means looking at this count we can narrow the pool down to Dan, Tom, AJ, Ben, JT.
AJ - voted himself out so he is not scum
JT - got snuffed out by scum
Now that leave only three.
Dan - is a very experienced player and know we are not as xp'd. I think he is scum and is hiding in plain site. He is advocating to have me lynched and I am not scum. Yes I have changed my play style a bit but only in the fact that I am not saying dumb shit all the time.
Ben - Is a savvy online person and understands how to play a game like this. He is playing in a way that would lead me to believe he is scum. My vote has been with him to try and see what others would do. But he is not at the top of my list to be scum.
Thom - Could be scum could be town. Like others have said he is playing differently then last game but then again so am I and i am not scum.
We that leads me to the current count. With Dan, Ben, Andy all voting for me.
Andy - Not sure seems to be try to scum hunt but get defensive when confronted.
Dan - Just more scum fear mongering trying to get others to rally behind him against me.
Ben - leads me to believe he is scum
Thom - Could have dropped the hammer and won the game for scum so he is off the list.
Nate's big content post we've all been waiting for. I did a little bit of analysis of it already, but let's take a closer look at the bits about Tom.
In the first section about D1 voting, AJ and JT are null, obviously. Leaving me, Ben and Tom.
- I'm listed as scum because... no real reason. Because I'm advocating for a lynch on Nate, I'm scum. (not a valid reason, FYI).
- Ben is maybe scum because he is playing in a way that leads Nate to believe he is scum. Another non-reason, really. Interestingly he follows up saying that Ben is not his Top suspect, and yet Nate's vote has been on Ben the entire time.
- Tom gets some extremely vague comments and he doesn't give an opinion. Dan and Ben are probably scum because he feels like it, but Tom... could be scum, could be town.
The D2 voting analysis:
- Andy he's not sure about, but he at least gives a couple thoughts on how he has been playing.
- Dan is scum
- Ben is scum
- Tom not scum. Now, IF what he said was true about hammering, then that would be a valid reason, but it's not true. I already addressed that. Furthermore, IF a hammer won it for scum, then why doesn't he bring up the fact that ANYONE not voting for him (Josh and Picklz) must also be town? I'm not really sure why Tom was included in this list. The list for D1 covers the people voting for the lynch. This list covers the people voting on the biggest wagon (Nate)... and also includes Tom. Why bother to include Tom here?
Nate- a lot of what he's doing doesn't make sense. It kind of gives a scummy vibe, simply because he's not really offering himself up with answers and things like that.
In response to my direct question of what Tom thinks of Nate.
What Tom describes here is essentially what AJ was doing D1. Which admittedly doesn't bode well for the argument I guess, but you just have to trust me that it really is scummy and AJ is just a dumbass. Even Tom has referred to AJ's play as "suicide", so that seems to directly point to Tom agreeing with me that AJ WAS acting scummy as hell. So when AJ did it, he was scummy as hell. But when Nate does it, it's a scummy vibe and just doesn't make sense. Cognitive Dissonance here; why is it scummy if AJ does it, but not scummy when Nate does it?
