Mafia 4 - Night 2, Deadline 10/7 9pm

[AJ]

AJ, I have a sneakin' suspicion your theories are off. I think you might have one of the scum between Andy and Nate, but.... the more I think about it, I'm beginning to think......... we may have a very clever scum on our hands.

at some point here you have to think... walks like a duck, talks like a duck, kills townies in the middle of the night like a duck... This kind of twisting and misdirection I would not put past a couple people here, including you Tom. A good play, but I just don't know if I buy it.

I was suspect that even if one of us where onto a true scum member, Eddy could have been take out for his game play as Nate indicated.

 

[dmention7]

Nate, why the lack of activity on the last day? Why no vote? How do you know why they took out Eddy? He rallied a vote against Josh (who turned out to be town), and had both Tom and I breathing down his neck like crazy, just waiting for him to slip up.


Here is what is perplexing me: So far both night kills have been players that have a fair amount of heat on them. Under a straightforward scum plan, you take out the townies who are under no threat of being lynched and let the townies themselves lynch the scummier-looking townies. So far both NKs have been players who stand a good chance of being offed by their own. I think Tom is correct that we are dealing with a clever scum here, or at least ones who are taking sort of a non-traditional tack.

We need to go back and figure out what it is that made JT and Eddy a threat to scum, because it is apparently something less than obvious. Alternatively, who would stand to benefit the most from these people being gone? What are the scenarios where these kills benefit scum?

 

[WhiteSpy9]

They took Eddy out cuz he is good at the game and would eventually figure them out.

How do you know this?










scum alert... scum alert.....

 

[mndsm]

He knows it because it's true. Eddy is VERY good at this game. It's natural asian instincts or something, but he knows what's up. I guess it made sense for scum to off him. In that respect, it throws town right back to day 1, each and every time. Before, we had a good inkling of potential scum behavior. In my case, it turned out both my theories were WAY wrong, but they sure seemed bad news. Scum offs them, and we're right back to fishing around in the dark, looking at who would be scum from a d1 perspective, each and every time.

 

[Picklz]

Nate, why the lack of activity on the last day? Why no vote? How do you know why they took out Eddy? He rallied a vote against Josh (who turned out to be town), and had both Tom and I breathing down his neck like crazy, just waiting for him to slip up.


Here is what is perplexing me: So far both night kills have been players that have a fair amount of heat on them. Under a straightforward scum plan, you take out the townies who are under no threat of being lynched and let the townies themselves lynch the scummier-looking townies. So far both NKs have been players who stand a good chance of being offed by their own. I think Tom is correct that we are dealing with a clever scum here, or at least ones who are taking sort of a non-traditional tack.

We need to go back and figure out what it is that made JT and Eddy a threat to scum, because it is apparently something less than obvious. Alternatively, who would stand to benefit the most from these people being gone? What are the scenarios where these kills benefit scum?

I would also like to hear from Nate on why he's so confident in why Eddy got lynched, and why there was a no-vote from him.

I agree with this Jay and it has been what I've been trying to figure out since JT was offed - both players to me anyway seemed to be doing a good job of scum hunting, Eddy more than JT but JT was trying to come up with some very smart strategies. Both were very heavily attacked by Tom trying to rally for a Lynch. Neither one got enough Town support and the next day each of them end up dead from a night kill. Tom hides behind the 'I'm being framed I'm not silly/dumb/crazy enough to kill them since it looks like me!' and we go along lynching another townie.

Now as I said before I'm not 100% sold on that theory, but it IS the one that's making the most sense to me at the moment. Unless there's something we've all been missing. Another thing - both times I think JT and Eddy only had 'heat' from a couple players, were they the same players? Could it have been scum both times trying to bring heat on them and failing? I'm not sure about this just something that occurred to me while typing this and probably warrants some investigation.

 

[dmention7]

Well, as you said, Tom was definitely bringing the heat on both JT and Eddy, and has made no effort to hide it. But then we're in the territory of "If I was scum, would I really act that scummy??"

 

[mndsm]

Well, as you said, Tom was definitely bringing the heat on both JT and Eddy, and has made no effort to hide it. But then we're in the territory of "If I was scum, would I really act that scummy??"

Not to mention, I had already stated to commit my vote to swanny before Andy swooped in and dropped the hammer. +

 

[AJ]

That could of been a ploy/strategy if you and Andy are scum, think about it, Andy is already off and pushing Nate, that seems like an easy out vs trying not to investigate you a bit more.

 

[AJ]

And of course you would of commited your vote if you knew he was town. As we where already going for him it made sense for you to commit as well and allow us to play right into your plan. F&^K, I think we have been extremely played....

 

[mndsm]

That could of been a ploy/strategy if you and Andy are scum, think about it, Andy is already off and pushing Nate, that seems like an easy out vs trying not to investigate you a bit more.

See, here's what makes me curious. Andy asked me multiple times what I thought about Josh. I thought it innocuous at the time, so I really didn't pay attention, and I went ahead and stated, I'd vote Josh, or that I thought Josh was scum. That set the precedent of me STATING I thought Josh was scum. turns out, Josh is town. We already know that in both instances I was damn sure JT and Eddy were town, and they fell under the axe. So, we have 3 instances of me thinking someone's scum, and 3 instances of them falling under the blade. Honestly, assuming I was scum, that'd be pretty fucking stupid of me to do. Even if I WAS working with another player as a scum, there's no way in hell i'd want to be associated with that kind of heat. I managed to avoid it for two days, largely due to luck I suspect. I think what I need to look at is who HASN'T been trying to swing at me, and has just been sort of chilling out, spitballing theories. Which is pretty much everyone that's still alive.

 

[Big Nate]

Well The lack of vote from me was more due to time and day that day 2 ended. Fridays are really busy for me taking kids to appointments and house work. I checked in mid morning and by by the time i got back the vote was done at 6:30pm. 2.5 hours before deadline. Now I understand we needed to lynch but i thought i would have a little more time. (my fault even though everyone said vote early this time).


Now the reason i said Eddy is a good player is because he is.

 

[mndsm]

So this brings us right back to where we started? Who's the scummiest? I think to that end, we need to define scummy behavior. IMO, the more I think about it, the more a squeaky clean no one is looking at me image is probably the perfect scum tactic for right now. No need to fret over mistakes if there aren't any to make because people consider you above reproach.

 

[Picklz]

So I re-read through a majority of the posts from Day 2 and Day 3 so far, and one thing that kind of jumps out at me is Nate get's much more vocal when there are votes going against him, then gets very quiet when the attention is elsewhere. I guess that is to be somewhat expected, but if I were scum I think I would try and be mostly quiet unless I had to defend myself, the fewer posts you have the less likely a mistake will happen. Eddy was also very much after Josh and Nate - I could see that being a good kill for Nate, as some of the blame could be pointed to Tom as well (nothing conclusive either way).

Another thing that is interesting is Andy un-vote's for Josh 'not liking where things are heading' then ends up being the hammer vote....I'm trying to read the before/after to see if there is anything more we can learn from this, but thought I'd point it out for others to have a look-see as well.

 

[Picklz]

So this brings us right back to where we started? Who's the scummiest? I think to that end, we need to define scummy behavior. IMO, the more I think about it, the more a squeaky clean no one is looking at me image is probably the perfect scum tactic for right now. No need to fret over mistakes if there aren't any to make because people consider you above reproach.

I hardly think we are back where we started - there is a TON of information to be had if you re-read through posts and start connecting the dots, I've started a document outlining facts and timelines for votes and such trying to come up with a decent theory as to who might be scum. Also Nobody is beyond reproach in this game, at least they shouldn't be.

 

[mndsm]

I agree that no one is beyond reproach, as it were, BUT- I know for a fact I need to go back and read for like the 50th time.

 

[Big Nate]

So I re-read through a majority of the posts from Day 2 and Day 3 so far, and one thing that kind of jumps out at me is Nate get's much more vocal when there are votes going against him, then gets very quiet when the attention is elsewhere. I guess that is to be somewhat expected, but if I were scum I think I would try and be mostly quiet unless I had to defend myself, the fewer posts you have the less likely a mistake will happen. Eddy was also very much after Josh and Nate - I could see that being a good kill for Nate, as some of the blame could be pointed to Tom as well (nothing conclusive either way).

Another thing that is interesting is Andy un-vote's for Josh 'not liking where things are heading' then ends up being the hammer vote....I'm trying to read the before/after to see if there is anything more we can learn from this, but thought I'd point it out for others to have a look-see as well.

Maybe my posting is what brings the heat to me not what I use to defend myself.

I find that the more I post the more people think I am scum. I am not the best at putting my thoughts out there in a paragraph so that is why I am pulling back only answering questions directed at me.

 

[Big Nate]

As I look back I see that from post 244 where I break down my thoughts on players only three people are still alive that voted for me.

Now like I said in that post looking at it like I am 100% town only these three people are still alive.
Picklz, Andy, and AJ
I think that both scum are there. Because scum would have wanted a lynch first day to kill of two Town and be that much closer to victory.

I am going to push for a lynch of Andy. He has always band wagon jumped and then at the end of this day two like Picklz pointed out he was the hammer that put a townie out of the game. Andy has been nothing but wishy washy in all of his posting and flip flops to the most convenient thing for scum.

 

[Big Nate]

Vote: Andy

 

[mndsm]

As I look back I see that from post 244 where I break down my thoughts on players only three people are still alive that voted for me.

Now like I said in that post looking at it like I am 100% town only these three people are still alive.
Picklz, Andy, and AJ
I think that both scum are there. Because scum would have wanted a lynch first day to kill of two Town and be that much closer to victory.

I am going to push for a lynch of Andy. He has always band wagon jumped and then at the end of this day two like Picklz pointed out he was the hammer that put a townie out of the game. Andy has been nothing but wishy washy in all of his posting and flip flops to the most convenient thing for scum.

3 players that voted for you are still alive... revenge murders perhaps?

 

[Picklz]

While I tend to also have some suspicion over Andy - I have to disagree that Scum would necessarily be pushing for a lynch Day 1.

Sure another townie dead is always a good thing for them, but statistically they were in better shape NOT lynching someone, which is why I have been most suspicious of those not voting or not being willing to negotiate a vote and who are dead set on one person no matter what. But I suppose it comes down to if scums intention was to do the most mathematically sound thing, or to just kill off an extra towny.

I'm going to go back and see if Anything points to AJ and Andy working together because it's not a combo that has occurred to me in my reading thus far.