Mafia 4 - Night 2, Deadline 10/7 9pm

[Picklz]

Wanna bet on whether or not I'm scum? You never answered me the last time.

I am wagering Town winning or loosing on it, that's all the more that needs to be bet. If you want to gamble with cash show up to poker night

 

[mndsm]

Chicken. I got a 20 spot right here says I'm town and you're an idiot for thinking anything else.

 

[Picklz]

Can you guys smell that? I think it's desperation! lol

 

[mndsm]

Only desparate for town to win.... this is our last shot at it.

 

[AJ]

Can we get a count?

Tom, let me guess, you want a no lynch then? Let's figure that, the vote stays spread out, Town only suffers one kill, making it 5 alive, 3 votes needed, 2 scum still prevail. Since the two scum seem to be doing very well at self preservation what's to say they don't back and watch town cast the 3 votes next round at yet another one of us. It doesn't make any sense. You're either going for the win or end up with a loss.

 

[mndsm]

I want a lynch, I wanna nail a scum. We've been cocking up the works this long, I'd like to at least get one hit in.

 

[dmention7]

Well, I can assure you guys my absence was not intended as a maneuver or ploy to draw out posts or behaviors. Just been a pretty busy start to the work week. HOWEVER.... Tom, I am not taking your vote against me personally as I can certainly understand wanting to draw me back into the game, but damn, voting for me because I'm too clean? I'm willing to accept that may have been a poor choice of words, but the sentiment is disturbing.

Tom has me worried... his gameplay so far has been scummy enough to call attention to himself, but not scummy enough to get a majority of people whipped up enough to lynch him. It has been a consistent theme, as Picklz pointed out. It's a good line to play. You get people thinking "aw man, there's something not right about this guy... but nobody's voting for him" and then attention gets called to someone else. I am not convinced yet, but that's where my thoughts are right now. If Tom was scum, I'd be looking for a more silent partner--someone who lets Tom get the attention, but then quietly casts a vote to build momentum.

That's where Andy comes in. I have to say... these two as a scum team make a lot of sense from strictly a superficial glance at things, but the voting record needs to be checked more carefully to bear that out or blow it out of the water.

I honestly have no good read on AJ. I have not seen anything blatantly scummy coming from him, but a lot of his posts seem rambling to me and that could be him trying to use a lot of doublespeak or make statements that influence people's opinion without actually saying anything damning on the record that could bite him in the ass. If he is scum, I would not have a good thought on who his partner might be at this time.

Nate seems less scummy the less he posts. THAT fact has me worried, because he took some heat in D1 and D2 when he was posting more, and now on D3, we have not heard much from him, and there is also not much discussion of him.

I was getting some weird vibes off Picklz on D2 when Eddy was around, just because they seemed to be teaming up and agreeing on a lot of things. Now that Eddy has been confirmed as Town, I guess that makes sense. Aside from that fact, I have not had much reason to suspect Picklz of being scum--his posts have generally been factual and inquisitive, rather than casting FUD on the situation.


All that said, my other general observations are that some players have been posting more in a conversational manner--only addressing the topic right at hand, in an apparent effort to keep the focus away from posting history and investigations that may lead to uncovering inconsistencies (or consistencies for that matter!) that are damning. This runs counter to Town's goal of using facts and evidence to root out scum. I'd like people to bear that in mind and maybe do some digging of their own, because frankly I have some reading to do myself before I'm willing to call anyone out on that.

 

[dmention7]

Okay, here comes an Eddy-esque wall of quotes from my first read-through of D1:

Andy asks a question that scum SHOULD know from their role PMs and game rules...

My question was in response to Picklz comment of JT and Thom both being scum. If scum are able to PM prior to the first night, then right now day one, they both know who the scum are.
If I have the rules right, two people know they are scum, but they DO NOT know who the other scum is. So for this particular first round, they are at a slight disadvantage. Starting day two they'll be able to work together.

Danno.... do I have that right?

Nate suggests that because people are not posting much, that we should just end D1 early and let scum pick off a free townie. This post did not get much attention originally because people still seemed pretty focused on the Tom/JT debacle.

"Well this game is not going well.

First there is a snafu with what rules are posted, now there is another snafu with deadlines.

I say if there isn't more action just let night fall let scum do there thing and keep the game rolling.
This is a game and if the players are not playing the way the grand poobah wants why the fuck should the grand poobah change dates. Maybe town has something up their sleeve. Maybe scum has something up theirs. In the end just leave the good damn rules/dates alone or the game is fucked and not fun."


That being said I stand by the information we have in that Kris said he is scum. Now we don't want townies out there calling themselves scum and if they do i think they are playing for themselves and not all of town.

RE-VOTE KRIS

Andy follows up with bandwagon vote #1... Following Nate this time.

I was a little torn between a few others, but I agree with Nate.
Anyone who outright says they are scum, probably should be taken care of.

VOTE KRIS

Now, Kris is not scum after some more discussion, but the vote still stands.

I don't know how I'm getting labeled as not playing much.
I feel like I'm posting often and I'm reading every post in here.

I'll admit to not naming names other than Kris as my suspects. That might seem as "not playing".
However, I want to see a bit more action before I lay my hand down.

That said.... Yes, Kris is likely not scum and AJs thoughts on who are/aren't townie are very similar to what I'm thinking.


I guess I see how basically posting a +1, can be considered not being active.
I'll be more vocal, even if it is just regurgitation of what has already been said.

Now, advocating a swift vote for Kris, even if he isn't scum. This one grabbed my attention because I can understand the rationale for voting for Kris at this point, even if you don't completely buy he's scum (I advocated for it actually), but that is entirely based on not having any better info to go off of. Wanting to bring a quick lynch to someone you didn't believe is scum is REALLY suspicious to me.

There are many subtle ways to swing votes if you were a cop with that information. Fine line to walk to not appear "scummy"

It is hard to say anyone who voted for Kris is leading others, since he has self labeled himself as scum.

The way town wins is to take out the scum. We have someone here who said, "I am scum".
Even if he isn't scum, I just can't see how we can ignore that.
Let's make this swift and move to the next day.

Now, backing off of Kris a few posts later.

UNVOTE KRIS

I was already on the fence w/ Kris and his recent explanation makes me understand his actions a bit more.

The pot has def been stirred.

Thom, can you explain that a bit more?
Do feel like the bandwagon is forming around you or something?

Picklz votes for Nate.

I feel like an earlier vote with no real indication that changing it is an option - even after all of the discussion and explanations for Kris' actions - and the statement that 'I won't be the deciding factor' speaks rather heavily as Scum, so for now I will let my vote sit with Nate.

Vote: Nate

Bandwagon vote #2 from Andy... Following Picklz this time.

I was eagerly waiting for this to be addressed. Now that it has been addressed, I feel more comfortable placing a vote to lynch for
Vote: Nate

I saw a lynch vote come from Nate, without much explanation. At the time it was understandable, but we got some really good explanation from Kris on why he said what he said. It is enough to change my mind and others. Nate isn't acknowledging that or justifying why we should continue to vote for Kris.

Now, admitting he was following the pack with his voting. Not something scum would likely do, but then scum can always make something up after the fact.

I don't "want" to vote for Nate, I think there is a 90% chance scum contains one of either Tom or JT, but not both. Isnt' a vote wasted if we are all over the map? But I also think not voting is more of a hinderance than anything at this point. So yeah, my vote to Nate was more of a follow the pack and I need to scale that back in case I'm being lead on. I'm unvoting and will read through tonight when I get home. I guess I need to decide if we need to have a lynch or not and hope for the best.

UNVOTE- NATE

Personally I have a feeling that anyone staying away from the Tom vs. JT war of words is likely the other scum, as they know who their partner is and needs to protect them.

Now a second post unvoting for Nate? Based on a post from AJ

UNVOTE NATE

The conversation that transpired between AJ and Nate has since changed my mind.

AJ, I totally agree with you in that the way people are talking says a lot about them.
Still on my radar is Thom.

Bandwagon vote #3 (after admitting to following the pack)

Exactly my reasoning for voting for JT. I've re-read some posts and the wording of certain things makes me feel confident in this vote.
Vote JT

With a couple minutes left in D1...

unvote jt
vote nate

AJ following suit with 1 minute left.

f'it.
Unvote Tom:

Vote: Nate

So, right at the end there Andy and AJ swing their votes off Tom(2 votes) and JT (1 vote) and cast them for Nate (2 votes). In my mind this is evidence against either a Nate/AJ or a Nate/Andy scum pair. Likewise Picklz had already voted for Nate, so I guess the same goes there. Full disclosure: I did not vote that night, which paints an unfavorable picture of me as a scum pair with Nate.

Ugh, this is making my head hurt. Anyone want to take it from here, and I'll give her another go tomorrow?

 

[AJ]

hummm, no matter how you slice that Jay there is one BIG common denominator in that ending synopsis...

 

[WhiteSpy9]

I feel dirty being quoted that much...... here goes a reply.

Quoting that way makes me look too willing to work with others to gather a consensus vote.
That is probably not the smartest move, since the group is divided by town and scum.

If it is worth anything, I feel pretty bored just being town and the only thing I feel I actually have control over is casting a vote.
So, yes I throw my votes around a lot, but that is the only thing I can do as town.

"Scum hunting" is a good thing, but I don't have time to read 5 pages of actions each actual day.
I would rather have gameplay be much fast than this.

 

[Workdawg]

Current Vote Count (3.2)

Picklz [0]
Tom [1] - Picklz
Nate [0]
AJ [1] - Andy
Jay [1] - Tom
Andy [2] - Nate, AJ

Not Voting [1] - Jay

With 6 players alive, 4 votes are needed to lynch!

Deadline to vote: 10/14, 9pm.

 

[dmention7]

I can understand your reasoning for voting that way Andy. My post was simply me reading through D1 and highlighting a narrative I saw forming. It's one way of looking at those events.

I disagree that game play needs to be fast and furious. It's good to mix things up and keep people on their toes, but town is best served by being deliberate and methodical. Confusion favors scum.

 

[dmention7]

Hypothesis: Andy / AJ scum pair

Evidence: They vote for Tom and JT on D1 to capitalize on the suspicion around their initial mix up, but when neither one pans out, they jump on the Nate bandwagon to attempt to rally a lynch. Now D3 they vote for each other to split the vote.

Further investigation needed: D2 voting activity.

 

[AJ]

I've been pulling for Andy as scum and have. Firm vote down on him, you really think I am scum with him? Or is this some ploy now that you have been called out, trying to change your game up and drum up support for why people should think you are town?

 

[WhiteSpy9]

That is what it sounds like to me.
We have been going at each other for quite a while now. Further, we both have a vote against each other.

I've been pulling for Andy as scum and have. Firm vote down on him, you really think I am scum with him? Or is this some ploy now that you have been called out, trying to change your game up and drum up support for why people should think you are town?

 

[dmention7]

hypothesis
hy·poth·e·sis/hīˈpäTHəsis/
Noun:
1)A supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation.
2)A proposition made as a basis for reasoning, without any assumption of its truth.

 

[dmention7]

Votes only have limited meaning until they lead to a lynch. And it would be a fairly straightforward tactic for scum to poke at each other a bit to shed any suspicion that they are working together. None of that poking has lead anywhere near a lynch yet, so I'm not willing to take that as proof positive that you're not in it together.

However, see my previous post about the definition of the word "hypothesis"

 

[WhiteSpy9]

fixed.

hypothesis
hy·poth·e·sis/hīˈpäTHəsis/
Noun:
1)Jay is possibly scum
2)See 1

 

[dmention7]

Did I hit close to home there?

 

[Picklz]

Interesting Jay - I guess I feel that Andy would have a higher likelihood of being scum than AJ based on everything that's happened over the 2 days and 2 night kills, but you do bring up some interesting points.With the quick switch voting Andy has done, the hammer vote D2, trying to move suspicion to Jay on D3 after he was defending Jay at the end of Day 2 etc I think I would probably support a vote for him. Personally I feel we have to go Tom or Andy at the moment.

And a quick FYI, I may be rather busy at work during the day Today and Tomorrow so not sure how much posting I'll do, I will try and catch up in the evenings. I will also be leaving Friday AM and will be out of town till Sunday night with limited internet access so I probably will have to have my final vote in Thursday night or right away on Friday before I leave. The more discussion we can have and the closer to coming to a consensus we are, the better obviously.