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BP oil spill coincidences

Jesse MS3GT

Querulous
This is for those of you who think coincidences are more likely than conspiracies. Enjoy!


Coincidence #1 BP CEO sells 1.4 millions POUNDs of his shares in BP one month before oil spill(Enron anyone?)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...yward-sold-shares-weeks-before-oil-spill.html

Coincidence #2 Goldman Sachs sell 44% of their stock in BP in first quarter, but not any of their shares in other oil companies(Enron anyone?)
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/210118-Goldman-Sachs-Sold-250-Million-of-BP-Stock-Before-Spill

Coincidence #3 Halliburton purchases oil cleanup corp Boots & Coots just weeks before BP oil spill
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10722752/halliburton-buys-boots-coots.html

Coincidence #4 Obama allows offshore drilling for first time in March 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/31/science/earth/31energy.html

Coincidence #5 Obama Blocks Louisiana, Foreign Allies from cleaning oil spill
http://www.opposingviews.com/i/obama-blocks-louisiana-foreign-allies-from-oil-spill-clean-up

Coincidence #6 Obama uses crisis to push Carbon Tax agenda
http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/06/02/obama.oil.spill/index.html
 

dmention7

Hater
All I have to say is "correlation does not imply causation".

The number of possible coincidences that can occur for any given event is so staggeringly large that it would be more surprising to me if one could locate no such coincidences. I mean, just as a thought experiment, think up all the possible people, companies and nations whose actions could be connected to the oil spill, and all the possible actions those parties could participate in that could appear connected, and the time period over which those actions would appear to have some connection to the spill, and you'll understand why things like this fail to impress me.
 

Jesse MS3GT

Querulous
Motives are not a factor in instances akin to these? Why? To Johnny, that signature is ridiculous, akin to the 20 dollar bill and twin towers coincidence used to show there was a conspiracy involved with 9/11. Thats not real evidence, and its silly. Far different than what I have presented. It's almost as bad as the conspiracy theory that 9/11 was all CGI. that's a theory with ridiculous claims as evidence. Just because one idea is ludicrous is doesn't mean they all are.

So when Ken Lay and others in Enron started selling their stock that should not have been a red flag or used as evidence of corruption? It should have been written off as coincidence according to that logic?

When Obama blocks assistance with the oil spill, and it continues to worsen, thats a crime in and of itself. There is no good reason to block assistance. Couple/compound that with the fact he's using the crisis to push a carbon tax, and you say theres no motive for him? Are you kidding me?

Why is motive/means/logic used as evidence to convict Tyrone in a burglary or murder, but when it comes to corporations and government, its not given one thought?
Why is it that if conspiracy is insinuated as an explanation, 99% of the public will dismiss and not give one thought to motive/means/logic? White collar criminals do not exist in government or corporations? They are not capable of conspiracy? Only petty criminals are?
 
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Jesse MS3GT

Querulous
I have purged this thread of the completely off topic bs.
Thanks, although now my one response doesn't make any sense(Obama signature) lmao

Just so people don't get the wrong idea, which I assume they have already incorrectly assumed...

What I am insinuating is BP knew the spill was likely to occur, because they knew of the problem and they didn't have a concrete solution. Since they believed it was imminent, they tried to salvage some money. Same with Goldman Sachs. Halliburton probably was aware of the problem and saw a potential profit if it did occur. I'm not saying they blatantly permitted the spill.

Now in Obamas case, I doubt he knew the oil spill was going to occur. But since he has wanted to pass a carbon tax, he did everything possible to allow this crisis to worsen, as doing so increase the probability of his agenda succeeding.
 
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dmention7

Hater
Dammit, I knew I was going to be a dirty liar as soon as I typed "All I have to say is...."

My objection to your line of reasoning is that it's heavy on the speculation based on a set of disparate coincidences. I subscribe to the philosophy that extraordinary claims require proportionally extraordinary evidence; and to me, the idea that countless politicians, executives, engineers, and assorted Joe Schmoes somehow knew weeks or months in advance that an oil pipe would burst is even more extraordinary than the idea that they did nothing (and even decided to profit on the disaster). If that kind of foresight was possible, then it implies that every similar oil rig accident was also anticipated. I would demand some evidence of that claim before I could give serious weight to the idea of a conspiracy.

I won't deny that there are political and financial motives at play that I have no grasp of, but equal weight has to be given to the physical possibility of these entities to be aware of and act on their motives. Otherwise, to follow your analogy, we might as well just convict every Tyrone who happened to be in want of some cash when the robbery occurred.


EDIT: I have to quibble a bit with evidences 4 & 6.

Regarding #4, Obama opened up regions of the atlantic and gulf coast to drilling by accepting some proposals from the Bush administration; he did NOT "allow offshore drilling for the first time".

Regarding #6, A politician taking advantage of a global event to push their agenda is not evidence of a conspiracy. That's just business as usual.
 
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Jesse MS3GT

Querulous
Talking to most Americans about government/politics/corporations using logic, motive and means as an argument, is akin to a scientist speaking with a religious person. The scientist can provide all the TANGIBLE evidence and information in the world to the religious, but that person will edit that evidence and information according to their beliefs. If the evidence and information goes against their beliefs, they will either give it no thought, or dismiss it as bunk. Screw carbon dating, god says otherwise.

Also, they won’t even listen to, or read information or view movies that contradict their beliefs. My dad is a prime example. He refuses to watch movies like the Davinci code, or the Golden Compass, because what it presents speaks ill of his beliefs and the church. My dad won’t listen to a logical argument; he allows his beliefs to dismiss evidence.

Same goes for the left vs. right bullshit. As Lewis Black once said as an example of how the republicans were saying Bush wasn't informed about Katrina while the media showed footage of Bush being informed. "You could have a video tape of a cat being run over by a car, and the republicans would argue "well the cat was clearly suicidal". Same goes for liberals. They put logic aside so that reality coincides with their beliefs.
 

YSOSLO

is the word, beotch
I'm a "liberal" yet I've always considered myself a pretty logical guy, so your last sentence confuses me... Are you implying only conservatives are logical, or merely that reality is illogical?
 

Big Nate

Chaos Engineer
HHHHMMMMMM I think we are as uniformed about the truth with this as we can get. Kinda like saying a car is broken based on it's color rather then any of the internal components not working. Not saying that shit aint broke but it may not be broke in the places we think it is.


:pc:
 
S

spek1098

Guest
Politics using crisis for moving an agenda forward is somehow wrong? Roosevelt using Pearl Harbor to enter WW2 wrong? Truman using Sputnik to get the US into the space race was wrong? Bush using 9/11 to go after the Taliban is wrong? Seems flawed to call that type of action wrong, or part of a conspiracy.

Check out this Radio Lab podcast on Stochasticity. It talks about how normal randomness is.
http://blogs.wnyc.org/radiolab/category/podcasts/page/4/
 

Jesse MS3GT

Querulous
I'm a "liberal" yet I've always considered myself a pretty logical guy, so your last sentence confuses me... Are you implying only conservatives are logical, or merely that reality is illogical?
I was using it as an example. IMO both sides exhibit the same beliefs trumps logic thinking. Partially why nothing ever changes. Both sides blame each other (its Bushes fault, no its Obamas) Rinse repeat every four to eight years.
 

Jesse MS3GT

Querulous
Politics using crisis for moving an agenda forward is somehow wrong?
If we don't need a carbon tax, and you permit a crisis to worsen so what Obama calls as a "solution" is more likely to pass, yes that is wrong.
Roosevelt using Pearl Harbor to enter WW2 wrong?
When you take into account he did everything possible to anger the Japanese, yes. We froze their assets, seized their property, put innocent Japanese Americans in internment camps

1. The exchange of American destroyers for British bases in the Caribbean and in Newfoundland in September, 1940. This was a clear departure from the requirements of neutrality and was also a violation of some specific American laws. Indeed, a conference of top government lawyers at the time decided that the destroyer deal put this country into the war, legally and morally.

10. The freezing of Japanese assets in the United States on July 25, 1941. This step, which was followed by similar action on the part of Great Britain and the Netherlands East Indies, amounted to a commercial blockade of Japan. The warmaking potentialities of this decision had been recognized by Roosevelt himself shortly before it was taken. Addressing a delegation and explaining why oil exports to Japan had not been stopped previously, he said: "It was very essential, from our own selfish point of view of defense, to prevent a war from starting in the South Pacific. So our foreign policy was trying to stop a war from breaking out down there.... Now, if we cut the oil off, they [the Japanese] probably would have gone down to the Netherlands East Indies a year ago, and we would have had war."

11. When the Japanese Prime Minister, Prince Fumimaro Konoye, appealed for a personal meeting with Roosevelt to discuss an amicable settlement in the Pacific, this appeal was rejected, despite the strong favorable recommendations of the American ambassador to Japan, Joseph C. Grew.

12. Final step on the road to war in the Pacific was Secretary of State Hull's note to the Japanese government of November 26. Before sending this communication Hull had considered proposing a compromise formula which would have relaxed the blockade of Japan in return for Japanese withdrawal from southern Indochina and a limitation of Japanese forces in northern Indochina.

13. However, Hull dropped this idea under pressure from British and Chinese sources. He dispatched a veritable ultimatum on November 26, which demanded unconditional Japanese withdrawal from China and from Indochina and insisted that there should be "no support of any government in China other than the National government [Chiang Kai-shek]." Hull admitted that this note took Japanese-American relations out of the realm of diplomacy and placed them in the hands of the military authorities.

14.The negative Japanese reply to this note was delivered almost simultaneously with the attack on Pearl Harbor. There was a strange and as yet unexplained failure to prepare for this attack by giving General Short and Admiral Kimmel, commanders on the spot, a clear picture of the imminent danger. As Secretary of War Stimson explained the American policy, it was to maneuver the Japanese into firing the first shot, and it may have been feared that openly precautionary and defensive moves on the part of Kimmel and Short would scare off the impending attack by the Japanese task force which was known to be on its way to some American outpost.
http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v14/v14n6p19_Chamberlin.html

Truman using Sputnik to get the US into the space race was wrong?
I see nothing wrong with that, but that was not a natural disaster.

Bush using 9/11 to go after the Taliban is wrong?
Nothing wrong with going after the Taliban, but using it as a pretext to go to war with Iraq is. Also, using 9/11 to erode what Old Glory and America stands for(liberty/freedom) is wrong.

The Patriot, and Military Commissions acts, suspension of Habeas Corpus, eroding Posse Comitatus, the unwarranted surveillance of innocent Americans, the ability to detain you indefinitely under the suspicion you might be a terrorist/domestic terrorist.... All of these facts should be alarming to Americans. I remember when Obama touted on his campaign he was going to repeal the Patriot Act, and bring all of our troops home within 16 months of his inauguration.

I told people on MNSC that would not happen, many laughed. I was right, he extended the Patriot act, and our troops are still overseas. You can view this as usual broken promises, but I see it as both parties being in accord. That they have a right to control and fuck with us however they want, all the while paying lip service to the people. Look at the continual constant pattern in politics. Government always expands, never contracts. The nation continually goes further into debt. The people of the USAs rights and freedoms are continually eroded, once taken away, we never regain them. It's because most politicians are power and money hungry. People will accept any gradual change, any significant change will be fought(Hitler anyone?).

Power corrupts. And to end my rant, heres a great example of the great old American dream(because you have to be asleep to beieve it - George Carlin) Welcome to doublethink. If you don't know the definition, look it up.

"The areas of life that remain outside the government’s control, taxation, regulation, surveillance, and other intrusion/control have become so few and so trivial that they scarcely merit mention. We verge closer upon the condition in which everything that is not prohibited is required. Yet, the average American will declare loudly that he is a free man and that his country is the freest in the world." ~ Robert Higgs
 
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